U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 1% from December

by World Grain Staff
Share This:

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 870 million bushels, down 8 million bushels, or 1%, from 878 million bushels forecast in December but up 8 million bushels from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The decrease was the result of projected increased exports more than offsetting reduced domestic use in 2011-12.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 831 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 846 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from December and down 282 million bushels, or 25%, from 1.128 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was well above the average trade estimate near 753 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bushels, up 45 million bushels, or 20%, from 230 million bushels in December and up 60 million bushels, or 28%, from 215 million bushels in 2011. The USDA soybean carryover number also was well above the average pre-report trade estimate of 227 million bushels.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1.999 billion bushels for 2011, unchanged from the December projection and down 208 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 billion bushels in 2010.

Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from December but up 23 million bushels, or 24%, from 97 million bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.982 billion bushels for 2011-12, also unchanged from December but down 297 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 950 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 925 million bushels in December but down 339 million bushels, or 26%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 935 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from December but up 9 million bushels from 926 million bushels in 2010-11, and seed use at 82 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from December and up 11 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bushels, down 15 million bushels, or 9%, from 160 million bushels in December but up 13 million bushels, or 10%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.112 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels from December but down 305 million bushels, or 13%, from 2,417 million bushels in 2010-11.

“Food use is projected 5 million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North American Millers’ Association for July-September 2011,” the USDA said.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $6.95-$7.45 a bushels, compared with $7.05-$7.55 projected in December, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, increased export projections for hard red winter, white and soft red winter more than offset a reduction for hard red spring.

The USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bushels, down 5 million bushels, or 1%, from 343 million bushels in December and down 48 million bushels, or 12%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 390 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 4%, from 375 million bushels the prior month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 258 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from December but up 87 million bushels, or 50%, from 171 million bushels in 2011. Soft red exports in 2011-12 were projected at 115 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from December.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 139 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 8%, from December but down 46 million bushels, or 25%, from 185 million bushels in 2011. Hard spring exports in 2011-12 were forecast at 240 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 4%, from 250 million bushels in December.

White wheat carryover was projected at 112 million bushels in 2012, down 10 million bushels, or 8%, from 122 million bushels in December but up 27 million bushels, or 32%, from 85 million bushels in 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 185 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 6%, from 170 million bushels in December.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 23 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from December and down 12 million bushels, or 34%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 691.5 million tonnes, up 2.53 million tonnes from December, up 39.82 million tonnes, or 6%, from 651.68 million tonnes the prior year and 6.06 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.44 million tonnes in 2009-10, the USDA said. Global wheat use was projected at 681.43 million tonnes, up 1.23 million tonnes from December and up 27.56 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.87 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 139.37 million tonnes, up 680,000 tonnes from December and up 7.55 million tonnes from 131.82 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 210.02 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from December and up 10.08 million tonnes, or 5%, from 199.94 million tonnes in 2010-11, the USDA said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12.358 billion bushels, up 48 million bushels December but down 89 million bushels, or 1%, from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from December but down 13 million bushels from 28 million bushels in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,501 million bushels, up 48 million bushels from December but down 681 million bushels, or 5%, from 14.182 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.405 billion bushels in 2011-12, unchanged from December (including corn for ethanol at 5 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.405 billion bushels, unchanged), but down 23 million bushels from 6.428 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.6 billion bushels, unchanged from December but down 193 million bushels, or 4%, from 4.793 billion bushels 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.65 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from December but down 185 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.835 billion bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.70-$6.70 a bushel, down 20¢ from $5.90-$6.90 a bushel December and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3.056 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from December but down 273 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from December but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.286 billion bushels, up 11 million bushels from December but down 209 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3.011 billion bushels, down 34 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.045 billion bushels in December and down 269 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.28 billion bushels in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1.615 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from December and down 33 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.648 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.3 billion bushels in December and down 226 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.501 billion bushels in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from December at 32 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.95-$12.45 a bushel in 2011-12, compared with $10.70-$12.70 a bushels in December, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

 

Partners