U.S. 2012 wheat carryover up 6% from November

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 878 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 6%, from 828 million bushels forecast in November and up 16 million bushels, or 2%, from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Dec. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The increase was the result of a 50-million-bushel reduction in projected 2011-12 U.S. wheat exports.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 830 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 848 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from 843 million bushels in November but down 280 million bushels, or 25%, from 1,128 million bushels in 2011.

The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate near 838 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 230 million bushels, up 35 million bushels, or 18%, from 195 million bushels in November and up 15 million bushels, or 7%, from 215 million bushels in 2011.

The USDA soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 213 million bushels.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1.999 billion bushels for 2011, unchanged from the November projection and down 208 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 billion bushels in 2010.

Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 23 million bushels, or 24%, from 97 million bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.982 billion bushels for 2011-12, also unchanged from November but down 297 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 925 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 5%, from 975 million bushels in November and down 364 million bushels, or 28%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.

“Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply and use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade,” the USDA said.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 14 million bushels, or 2%, from 926 million bushels in 2010-11, and seed use at 78 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 7 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 28 million bushels, or 21%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.103 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 2%, from November but down 314 million bushels, or 13%, from 2.417 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.05-$7.55 a bushels, compared with $7.05-$7.75 projected in November, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, reductions were made in projected exports of hard winter, soft red and white wheat.

The USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 343 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 8%, from 318 million bushels in November but down 43 million bushels, or 11%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 375 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 6%, from 400 million bushels the prior month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 259 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 6%, from 244 million bushels in November and up 88 million bushels, or 51%, from 171 million bushels in 2011. Soft red exports in 2011-12 were projected at 110 million bushels, down 15 million bushels, or 12%, from 125 million bushels in November.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 129 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 56 million bushels, or 30%, from 185 million bushels in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 122 million bushels in 2012, up 10 million bushels, or 9%, from 112 million bushels in November and up 37 million bushels, or 44%, from 85 million bushels in 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 170 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 6%, from 180 million bushels in November.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 26 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 9 million bushels, or 26%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 688.97 million tonnes, up 5.67 million tonnes from November, up 37.39 million tonnes, or 6%, from 651.58 million tonnes the prior year and 3.53 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.44 million tonnes in 2009-10, the USDA said. Global wheat use was projected at 680.2 million tonnes, up 3.37 million tonnes from November and up 26.23 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.97 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 138.69 million tonnes, up 1.39 million tonnes from November and up 6.79 million tonnes from 131.9 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 208.52 million tonnes, up 5.92 million tonnes from November, up 8.77 million tonnes, or 4%, from 199.75 million tonnes in 2010-11 and a 12-year high, the USDA said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,310 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 137 million bushels, or 1%, from 12,447 million bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 13 million bushels, or 46%, from 28 million bushels in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,453 million bushels, unchanged from November and down 729 million bushels, or 5%, from 14,182 million bushels in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.405 billion bushels in 2011-12, down 5 million bushels from November (including corn for ethanol at 5.000 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.405 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels), and down 23 million bushels from 6.428 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.600 billion bushels, unchanged from November but down 192 million bushels, or 4%, from 4.792 billion bushels 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.600 billion bushels, unchanged from November but down 235 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.835 billion bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.90-$6.90 a bushel, down 30¢ from $6.20-$7.20 a bushel in November and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3.046 billion bushels, unchanged from November and down 283 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.275 billion bushels, unchanged from November and down 220 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3.045 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.080 billion bushels in November and down 235 million bushels, or 7%, from 3.280 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Crushings were projected at 1.625 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from November and down 23 million bushels from 1.648 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.300 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.325 billion bushels in November and down 201 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.501 billion bushels in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from November at 32 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.70-$12.70 a bushel in 2011-12, down 90¢ from $11.60-$13.60 a bushels in November and compared with $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

U.S. rice projections for 2011-12 all were unchanged from November with carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, projected at 37.5 million cwts, down from 48.5 million cwts in 2011.

World rice ending stocks were forecast at 99.5 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from November but up 2.8 million tonnes from 2010-11. World production in 2011-12 was projected at 460.8 million tonnes, down slightly from November but still record large, the USDA said.

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