U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 1% from October

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 828 million bushels, down 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 837 million bushels forecast in October and down 34 million bushels, or 4%, from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was above the average trade expectation of 819 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 843 million bushels, down 23 million bushels, or 3%, from 866 million bushels in October and down 285 million bushels, or 25%, from 1.128 billion bushels in 2011.

The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate near 801 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 195 million bushels, up 35 million bushels, or 22%, from 160 million bushels in October but down 20 million bushels, or 9%, from 215 million bushels in 2011.

The USDA soybean carryover number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of about 185 million bushels.

“U.S. wheat supplies for 2011-12 are lowered 9 million bushels based on updated production estimates for the states resurveyed following the Sept. 30 Small Grains report,” the USDA said. “Adjustments to production in these states, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for hard red spring wheat and durum. An increase in white wheat production is partly offsetting.” U.S.D.A. 2011-12 all wheat use projections were unchanged from October.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1.999 billion bushels for 2011, down 9 million bushels from 2.008 billion bushels in October and down 208 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 million bushels in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from October and up 24% from 97 million bushels a year earlier.

Total wheat supply was projected at 2.982 billion bushels for 2011-12, down 8 million bushels from October and down 297 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 million bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bushels, unchanged from October and down 314 million bushels, or 24%, from 1.289 million bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from October but up 14 million bushels, or 2%, from 926 million bushels in 2010-11, and seed use at 78 million bushels, unchanged from October but up 7 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bushels, unchanged from October but up 28 million bushels, or 21%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.153 million bushels, unchanged from October but down 264 million bushels, or 11%, from 2.417 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.05-$7.75 a bushels, down from $7.10-$7.90 in October and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 318 million bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 7%, from 298 million bushels in October but down 68 million bushels, or 18%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 244 million bushels, unchanged from October and up 73 million bushels, or 43%, from 171 million bushels in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 129 million bushels, down 28 million bushels, or 18%, from 157 million bushels in October and down 56 million bushels, or 30%, from 185 million bushels in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 112 million bushels in 2012, up 1 million bushels from October and up 27 million bushels, or 32%, from 85 million bushels in 2011.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 26 million bushels, down 2 million bushels, or 7%, from 28 million bushels in October and down 9 million bushels, or 26%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at 683.3 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from October and up 36.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.7 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 676.83 million tonnes, up 2.4 million tonnes from October and up 23.35 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.48 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 137.3 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from October and up 5.93 million tonnes from 131.37 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 202.6 million tonnes, up 230,000 tonnes from October and up 6.47 million tonnes, or 3%, from 196.13 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,310 million bushels, down 1%, from 12.433 million bushels in October and down 137 million bushels, or 1%, from 12,447 million bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from October but down 13 million bushels, or 46%, from 28 million bushels in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,453 million bushels, down 123 million bushels, or 1%, from October and down 729 million bushels, or 5%, from 14,182 million bushels in 2010-11.

Projected feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.6 million bushels, down 100 million bushels, or 2%, from October and down 192 million bushels, or 4%, from 4.792 million bushels in 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.41 billion bushels, unchanged from October (including corn for ethanol at 5 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.41 billion bushels, unchanged), and down 18 million bushels from 6.428 million bushels in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.6 million bushels, unchanged from October but down 235 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.835 million bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.20-$7.20 a bushel, unchanged from October and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3,046 million bushels, down 14 million bushels from 3.06 million bushels in October and down 283 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from October but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.275 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from 3.29 billion bushels in October and down 220 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3.08 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.13 million bushels in October and down 200 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.28 billion bushels in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1.635 billion bushels, unchanged from October and down 13 million bushels from 1.648 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.325 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.375 billion bushels in October and down 176 million bushels, or 12%, from 1.501 billion bushels in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from October at 32 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.60-$13.60 a bushel in 2011-12, down 55¢ from $12.15-$14.15 a bushels in October and compared with $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.
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