U.S. 2012 wheat carryover up 10% from September

by Staff
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 837 million bushels, up 76 million bushels, or 10%, from 671 million bushels forecast in September but down 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover was above average trade expectation of 747 million bushels and exceeded the high end of the range of trade estimates as well.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 866 million bushels, up 194 million bushels, or 29% from 672 million bushels in September but down 262 million bushels, or 23%, from 1,128 million bushels in 2011.

The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate near 795 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 160 million bushels, down 5 million bushels, or 3%, from 165 million bushels in September and down 55 million bushels, or 26%, from 215 million bushels estimated for 2011.

The USDA soybean carryover number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of about 181 million bushels.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2.008 billion bushels for 2011, down 69 million bushels, or 3%, from 2.077 billion bushels in September and down 199 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 billion bushels in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, up 9% from 110 million bushels in September and up 24% from 97 million bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.99 billion bushels for 2011-12, down 57 million bushels, or 2%, from September and down 289 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 5%, from 1,025 million bushels in September and down 314 million bushels, or 24%, from 1.289 million bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from September but up 14 million bushels, or 2%, from 926 million bushels in 2010-11, and seed use at 78 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from September but up 7 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bushels, down 80 million bushels, or 33%, from 240 million bushels in September but up 28 million bushels, or 21%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.153 billion bushels, down 134 million bushels, or 6%, from 2,287 million bushels in September and down 264 million bushels, or 11%, from 2.417 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.10@7.90 a bushels, down from $7.35@8.35 in September and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

“Despite competitive wheat prices relative to corn for feeders I many areas, wheat feed and residual use during June-August is indicated 53 million bushels lower than the same quarter last year,” the USDA said.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 298 million bushels, up 26 million bushels, or 10%, from 272 million bushels in September but down 88 million bushels, or 23%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 244 million bushels, up 47 million bushels, or 24%, from 197 million bushels in September and up 73 million bushels, or 43%, from 171 million bushels in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 157 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from September and down 28 million bushels, or 15%, from 185 million bushels in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 111 million bushels in 2012, up 5 million bushels from September and up 26 million bushels, or 31%, from 85 million bushels in 2011.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 28 million bushels, unchanged from September and down 7 million bushels, or 20%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at 681.2 million tonnes, up 3.08 million tonnes from September and up 33.04 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.16 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 674.43 million tonnes, down 2.43 million tonnes from September but up 21.13 million tonnes, or 3%, from 653.3 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 135.3 million tonnes, up 3.41 million tonnes from September and up 4.23 million tonnes from 131.07 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 202.37 million tonnes, up 7.78 million tonnes, or 4%, from September and up 6.77 million tonnes, or 3%, from 195.6 million tonnes in 2010-11.

“Reduced competition from U.S. spring wheat boosts prospects for Canada, while the record crop adds to available supplies in Kazakhstan,” the USDA said. Projected 2011-12 exports were raised 2 million tonnes each for Australia and Russia and 1 million tonnes each for Canada and Kazakhstan.

“As projected, 2011-12 (world) ending stocks would be a 10-year high,” the USDA said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12.433 billion bushels, down 1%, from 12.497 billion bushels in September and down 14 million bushels from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from September but down 12 million bushels, or 44%, from 27 million bushels in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13.576 billion bushels, up 144 million bushels, or 1%, from September but down 606 million bushels, or 4%, from 14.182 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Projected feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.7 billion bushels, unchanged from September but down 103 million bushels, or 2%, from 4.803 billion bushels 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.41 billion bushels, also unchanged from September (including corn for ethanol at 5 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.41 billion bushels, unchanged), and down 5 million bushels from 6.415 billion bushels in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.6 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.65 billion bushels in September and down 235 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.835 billion bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.20@7.20 a bushel, down 30¢ from September and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3.06 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.085 billion bushels in September and down 269 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from September and from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.29 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.325 billion bushels in September and down 205 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3.13 billion bushels, down 31 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.161 billion bushels in September and down 150 million bushels, or 5%, from 3.28 billion bushels in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1.635 billion bushels, unchanged from September and down 13 million bushels from 1.648 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.375 billion bushels, down 40 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.415 billion bushels in September and down 125 million bushels, or 8% from 2010-11. Residual was raised 9 million bushels from September to 32 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12.15@14.15 a bushels, down 50¢ from September and compared with $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

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