U.S. 2011 wheat production estimates drop 3%

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2011 all wheat production was estimated at 2,008,039,000 bushels, down 68,495,000 bushels, or 3%, from 2,076,534,000 bushels forecast in August and down 198,877,000 bushels, or 9%, from 2,206,916,000 bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary 2011.

The USDA all wheat production number was below average pre-report trade estimates near 2.044 billion bushels.

All wheat yield was estimated at 43.9 bushels an acre, down 1.3 bushels from 45.2 bushels in August and down 2.4 bushels from 46.3 bushels an acre in 2010.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was estimated at 462,473,000 bushels, down 59,502,000 bushels, or 11%, from 521,975,000 bushels forecast in August, and down 153,502,000 bushels, or 25%, from 615,975,000 bushels a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 38.3 bushels an acre, down 4.2 bushels from 42.5 bushels in August and down 7.8 bushels from 46.1 bushels in 2010.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 405,287,000 bushels, down 69,253,000 bushels, or 15%, from 474,540,000 bushels in August and down 164,688,000 bushels, or 29%, from 569,975,000 bushels in 2010.

Durum outturn was estimated at 51,889,000 bushels, down 5,241,000 bushels, or 9%, from 57,130,000 bushels forecast in August and down 54,191,000 bushels, or 51%, from 106,080,000 bushels in 2010. Durum average yield was estimated at 39.3 bushels an acre, down 3.1 bushels from 42.4 bushels an acre in August and down 2.8 bushels from 42.1 bushels an acre in 2010.

The USDA durum number was below the average trade expectation of 54 million bushels.

The USDA estimated winter wheat production at 1,493,677,000 bushels, down 3,752,000 bushels from 1,497,429,000 bushels in August but up 8,816,000 bushels, or 0.6%, from 1,484,861,000 bushels in 2010. The USDA estimated winter wheat yield at 46.2 bushels an acre, down 0.1 bushels from 46.3 bushels in August and down 0.6 bushels from 46.8 bushels an acre in 2010.

Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 780,089,000 bushels, down 14,299,000 bushels, or 2%, from 794,388,000 bushels in August and down 238,248,000 bushels, or 23%, from 1,018,337,000 bushels in 2010.

Soft red winter production was estimated at 457,535,000 bushels, up 5,554,000 bushels, or 1%, from 451,981,000 bushels in August and up 220,106,000 bushels, or 93%, from 237,429,000 bushels in 2010.

White winter wheat outturn was estimated at 256,053,000 bushels, up 4,993,000 bushels, or 2%, from 251,060,000 bushels in August and up 26,958,000 bushels, or 12%, from 229,095,000 bushels in 2010.

The USDA other spring wheat, winter wheat and hard red winter wheat numbers were below average pre-report trade estimates, but the soft red winter and white winter were above trade expectations.
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