U.S. 2012 wheat carryover up slightly from July

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 671 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from 670 million bushels forecast in July but down 190 million bushels, or 22%, from 861 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Aug. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover was as expected by the trade.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 714 million bushels, down 156 million bushels, or 18%, from 870 million bushels in July and down 226 million bushels, or 24%, from an upwardly revised 940 million bushels in 2011.

The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was below average trade expectations near 745 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 11%, from 175 million bushels in July and down 75 million bushels, or 33%, from an upwardly revised 230 million bushels estimated for this year.

The USDA soybean carryover number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of about 170 million bushels.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2.077 billion bushels for 2011, down 29 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.106 billion bushels in July and down 131 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.208 billion bushels in 2010. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.037 billion bushels for 2011-12, down 30 million bushels, or 1%, from July and down 244 million bushels, or 7%, from 3.281 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1.100 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 4%, from July and down 189 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 945 million bushels, unchanged from July but up 15 million bushels, or 2%, from 930 million bushels in 2010-11, and seed use at 82 million bushels, also unchanged from July but up 9 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 240 million bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 9%, from 220 million bushels in July but up 111 million bushels, or 86%, from 129 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.367 billion bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.397 billion bushels in July and down 53 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.420 billion bushels in 2010-11.

“Exports are projected down 50 million bushels (for 2011-12) with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised,” the USDA said. “Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies.”

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7-$8.20 a bushels, up from $6.60-$8 in July and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 222 million bushels, up 23 million bushels, or 12%, from 199 million bushels in July but down 164 million bushels, or 42%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 197 million bushels, up 14 million bushels, or 8%, from 183 million bushels in July and up 27 million bushels, or 16%, from 170 million bushels in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 143 million bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 17%, from 173 million bushels in July and down 42 million bushels, or 23%, from 185 million bushels in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 96 million bushels in 2012, down 6 million bushels from July but up 11 million bushels, or 13%, from 85 million bushels in 2011.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 13 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from July and down 22 million bushels, or 63%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at 672.09 million tonnes, up 9.67 million tonnes, or 1%, from July and up 24.23 million tonnes, or 4%, from 648.19 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 674.96 million tonnes, up 5.76 million tonnes from July and up 19.65 million tonnes, or 3%, from 655.31 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 131.33 million tonnes, up 1.29 million tonnes from July and up 1.28 million tonnes from 130.05 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 188.87 million tonnes, up 6.68 million tonnes, or 4%, from July but down 2.87 million tonnes, or 1%, from 191.74 million tonnes in 2010-11.

“World wheat production for 2011-12 is raised 9.7 million tonnes with increases in FSU-12, India, China and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction in Argentina,” the USDA said. Production in Russia and Ukraine was raised 3 million tonnes each, Kazakhstan 1 million, India 1.9 million, China 1.5 million and EU-27 1.4 million, while Argentina was down 1.5 million.

U.S. corn production in 2011, the first survey-based estimate of the year, was projected at 12.914 billion bushels, down 556 million bushels, or 4%, from July but up 467 million bushels, or 4%, from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13.874 billion bushels, down 496 million bushels, or 3%, from July and down 311 million bushels, or 2%, from 14.185 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Projected feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.9 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels from 5.05 billion bushels in July and down 100 million bushels from 5.0 billion bushels in 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.51 million bushels, down 40 million bushels from July (including corn for ethanol at 5.1 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, and food and seed use at 1.410 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from July), but up 90 million bushels from 6.42 billion bushels in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.75 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels, or 8%, from 1.9 billion bushels in July and down 75 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.825 billion bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.20-$7.20 a bushel, up 70¢ from July and compared with $5.20-$5.30 in 2010-11.

U.S. 2011 soybean production, based on the first survey-based estimate of the year, was projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million bushels, or 5%, from 3.225 billion bushels in July and down 273 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.301 billion bushels, down 139 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.44 billion bushels in July and down 194 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3.146 billion bushels, down 118 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.246 billion bushels in July and down 119 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.265 billion bushels in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1.635 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels from July and down 10 million bushels from 1.645 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.4 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels, or 6%, from 1.495 billion bushels in both July and 2010-11. Residual was lowered 4 million bushels from July to 21 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged from July at 90 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12.50-$14.50 a bushel, up 50¢ from July and compared with $11.35 this year.
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