U.S. 2011 corn, soybean crops up, wheat down

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2011 corn production was forecast at 12,914,085,000 bushels, up 4% from 12,446,865,000 bushels in 2010, soybean production was forecast at 3,055,882,000 bushels, down 8% from 3,329,341,000 bushels last year, and all wheat production was forecast at 2,076,534,000 bushels, down 1% from 2,106,119,000 bushels in July and down 6% from 2,208,391,000 bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Aug. 11 Crop Production report.

If realized, corn production still would be the third largest corn crop on record, the USDA said. It was the first USDA survey-based forecast of the season for corn, soybeans and other row crops.

The USDA corn number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of 13.08 billion bushels, the soybean number was below the pre-report average of about 3.18 billion bushels and the USDA all wheat number was slightly below the average analyst estimate of 2.08 billion bushels.

Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 153 bushels an acre, up 0.2 bushels from 152.8 bushels an acre in 2010 and the fourth highest on record, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 84.4 million acres, down slightly from 84.9 million acres in the previous forecast but up 4% from 81.4 million acres in 2010.

Soybean yield was forecast at 41.4 bushels an acre, down 2.1 bushels from 43.5 bushels an acre in 2010. Harvested area was forecast at 73.8 million acres, down slightly from 74.3 million acres forecast previously and down 4% from 76.6 million acres in 2010.

All wheat yield was forecast at 45.2 bushels an acre, up 0.6 bushels from 44.6 bushels an acre in July but down 1.2 bushels from 46.4 bushels an acre in 2010. Harvested area was forecast at 45.9 million acres, down 3% from 47.2 million acres in July and down 4% from 47.6 million acres in 2010.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 521,975,000 bushels, down 5% from 550,660,000 bushels forecast in July and down 15% from 615,975,000 bushels a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 42.5 bushels an acre, up 0.8 bushels from 41.7 bushels an acre in July but down 3.6 bushels from 46.1 bushels in 2010. Harvested area was forecast at 12,270,000 acres, down 7% from 13,220,000 acres in July and down 8% from 13,359,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 474,540,000 bushels, down 6% from 504,364,000 bushels in July and down 17% from 569,975,000 bushels in 2010. Soft white spring wheat outturn was forecast at 38,429,000 bushels, up 3% from 37,328,000 bushels in July and up 5% from 36,744,000 bushels in 2010. Hard white spring wheat production was forecast at 9,006,000, bushels, up slightly from 8,968,000 bushels in July but down 3% from 9,256,000 bushels a year ago.

Durum outturn was forecast at 57,130,000 bushels, down 10% from 63,720,000 bushels in July and down 47% from 107,180,000 bushels in 2010. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, durum yield was forecast at 42.4 bushels an acre, up 3.7 bushels from 38.7 bushels an acre in July and unchanged from 2010, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 1,347,000 acres, down 18% from 1,647,000 acres in July and down 47% from 2,529,000 acres a year ago.

The USDA forecast winter wheat production at 1,497,429,000 bushels, up slightly from 1,491,739,000 bushels in July and up 1% from 1,485,236,000 bushels in 2010. Winter wheat yield was forecast at 46.3 bushels an acre based on conditions as of Aug. 1, up 0.1 bushels from 46.2 bushels in July but down 0.5 bushels from 46.8 bushels an acre last year. Harvested area was forecast at 32,307,000 acres, unchanged from July and up 2% from 31,749,000 acres a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 794,388,000 bushels, up slightly from 791,250,000 bushels in July but down 22% from 1,018,337,000 bushels in 2010.

Soft red winter production was forecast at 451,981,000 bushels, down 1% from 457,670,000 bushels in July but up 90% from 237,804,000 bushels in 2010.

Soft white winter wheat outturn was forecast at 239,308,000 bushels, up 3% from 231,248,000 bushels in July and up 11% from 215,599,000 bushels in 2010. Hard white outturn was forecast at 11,752,000 bushels, up 2% from 11,571,000 bushels in July but down 13% from 13,496,000 bushels last year.

In its first survey-based rice crop forecast of the season, the USDA estimated 2011 U.S. rice production at 188,088,000 cwts, down 23% from 243,104,000 cwts in 2010.

Sorghum production in 2011 was forecast at 240,638,000 bushels, down 30% from 345,395,000 bushels in 2010 and the lowest since 1956, the USDA said.

The USDA forecast 2011 oats production at 57,489,000 bushels, up 2% from 56,551,000 bushels in July, down 29% from 81,190,000 bushels in 2010 and the lowest on record.
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