U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down slightly from March

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON – The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for wheat was reduced slightly from March, but corn and soybean carryover projections were unchanged from last month in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) April 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 839 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from 843 million bushels in March and down 137 million bushels, or 14%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the USDA said. The reduction was the result of a 4-million-bushel increase in projected 2010-11 seed use. Other all wheat supply and use numbers were unchanged, although there were changes in the wheat by class numbers and the projected average price range was lowered 10¢, to $5.50@5.70 a bushel.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 675 million bushels, unchanged from the March projection but down 1.033 billion bushels, or 60%, from 1.708 billion bushels in 2010. A projected 50-million-bushel increase in use of corn to make ethanol in 2010-11 was offset by a like decrease in feed and residual, the USDA said. The projected average price range was narrowed to $5.20@5.60 a bushel from $5.15@5.65 a bushel in March.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bushels, unchanged from March but down 11 million bushels, or 7%, from 151 million bushels a year earlier. Projected decreases of 10 million bushels in exports, 5 million bushels in crushings and 2 million bushels in seed use for 2010-11 were offset by a 17-million-bushel increase in residual. The projected average price range was narrowed to $11.25@11.75 a bushel from $11.10@12.10 a bushel in March.

The USDA wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation, which was near 860 million bushels, but the USDA corn and soybean carryover projections were above the average trade estimates near 590 million bushels for corn and 137 million bushels for soybeans.

U.S. 2010-11 all wheat supply numbers were unchanged from March, including beginning stocks at 976 million bushels, production at 2.208 billion bushels, imports at 110 million bushels and total supply at 3.294 billion bushels.

Also unchanged from last month were 2010-11 food use at 930 million bushels and feed and residual at 170 million bushels. Seed use was increased 4 million bushels, to 80 million bushels in 2010-11, bringing total domestic use to 1.18 billion bushels. Projected exports were unchanged at 1.275 billion bushels, resulting in total use projected at 2.455 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from March and up 437 million bushels, or 22%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

“Higher planted area as reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings raises projected seed use 4 million bushels,” the USDA said.

Several changes from March were made in the by-class breakdown. The USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 325 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from March but down 60 million bushels from a year ago. The change was based on a 15 million bushels decrease in projected domestic use at 459 million bushels.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 215 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from March and 19 million bushels below 234 million bushels in 2010. Changes were based on a 3-million-bushel reduction in 2010-11 supply at 836 million bushels and a 15-million-bushel increase in domestic use at 286 million bushels.

Soft red winter wheat carryover projected at 169 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from March but down 73 million bushels from 2010. The change was based on a 5-million-bushel increase in supply partially offset by a 4 million-bushel-increase in domestic use.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bushels in 2011, unchanged from March but up 3 million bushels from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 47 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from March but up 12 million bushels from 2010 based on a 2 million bushels decrease in total supply in 2010-11.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 182.83 million tonnes, up 930,000 tonnes from March but down 15.08 million tonnes, or 8%, from 197.91 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 647.18 million tonnes, down 420,000 tonnes from March and down 36.63 million tonnes, or 5%, from 683.81 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 662.26 million tonnes, down 760,000 tonnes from March but up 9.71 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.55 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 124.16 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from March but down 11.64 million tonnes, or 9%, from 135.8 million tonnes in the prior year.

U.S. corn supply projections were unchanged from March with 2010 corn production at 12,447 million bushels, 2010-11 imports at 20 million bushels, beginning stocks at 1.708 billion bushels and total U.S. supply at 14.175 billion bushels.

Food, seed and industrial use of corn in 2010-11 was raised 50 million bushels, to 6.4 billion bushels, with food, seed and industrial used unchanged at 1.4 billion bushels but projected use of corn for ethanol raised 50 million bushels to 5 billion bushels. U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5.15 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from March. Total domestic use was projected at 11.55 billion bushels, unchanged from March but up 471 million bushels, or 4%, from 11.079 billion bushels in 2009-10.

“Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels as strong blender incentives and positive ethanol producer margins continue to encourage expansion in ethanol production and use,” the USDA said. “Rising gasoline prices have pulled ethanol prices higher helping to offset increases in corn feedstock costs for ethanol producers.”

“U.S. corn feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels as increased prospects for 2011 soft red winter wheat production and higher year-to-year corn plantings in the South reduce expected corn feed and residual disappearance during the second half of the 2010-11 corn marketing year,” the USDA said.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bushels, unchanged from March but down 37 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.987 billion bushels in 2009-10. Total corn use in 2010-11 was unchanged at 13.5 billion bushels, up 434 million bushels, or 3%, from 13.066 billion bushels last year.

U.S. soybean supply projections were unchanged from March including beginning stocks at 151 million bushels, 2010 production at 3.329 billion bushels, imports at 15 million bushels and 2010-11 total supply at 3.495 million bushels.

Domestic soybean crush in 2010-11 was projected at 1.65 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from the March projection and down 102 million bushels, or 6%, from 1.752 billion bushels last year. Seed use in 2010-11 was projected at 89 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from March and down 1 million bushels from 2009-10. Projected soybean exports in 2010-11 were reduced by 10 million bushels, to 1.58 billion bushels, which still were record high, and up 79 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.501 billion bushels the previous year. Total soybean use in 2010-11 was unchanged at 3.355 billion bushels, down 6 million bushels from 2009-10.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 60.94 million tonnes, up 2.61 million tonnes from March and up 2.06 million tonnes from 2009-10. The increase was mainly the result of a 2-million-tonne increase in projected soybean production in Brazil, to a record 72 million tonnes.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 54.8 million cwts, up 2 million cwts from March and up 18.1 million cwts, or 49%, from 36.7 million cwts in 2010. The average farm price was projected to range from $12.35@12.85 a cwt, up 10c from March but down from $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10 and $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 97.09 million tonnes, down 1.69 million tonnes from March but up 3.28 million tonnes, or 3%, from 93.81 million tonnes a year earlier. The decrease was mainly the result of lower global production and a slight increase in consumption, the USDA said.
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