U.S. 2011 wheat carryover up 3% from February

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for wheat was raised by 3% from February, but corn and soybean projections were unchanged from last month the March 10 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 843 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 818 million bushels in February but down 133 million bushels, or 14%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the USDA said. The reduction was the result of a 25-million-bushel cut in projected 2010-11 exports to 1.275 billion bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 675 million bushels, unchanged from the February projection but down 1.033 million bushels, or 60%, from 1.708 billion bushels in 2010. All other 2010-11 corn projections also were unchanged except for the projected average price range, which was narrowed to $5.15@5.65 a bushel from $5.05@5.75 a bushel in February and compared with $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 a bushel in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 11 million bushels, or 7%, from 151 million bushels a year earlier. Other 2010-11 soybean projections were unchanged from February except seed use, which was raised 3 million bushels to 91 million bushels, and residual, which was lowered 3 million bushels, to 19 million bushels. The projected 2010-11 average price range also was lowered 10¢ a bushel, to $11.10@12.10 a bushel from $11.20@12.20 a bushel in February and compared with $9.59 a bushel in 2009-10 and $9.97 a bushel in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean projections unchanged from February included beginning stocks at 151 million bushels, 2010 production at 3,329 million bushels, imports at 15 million bushels and 2010-11 total supply at 3,495 million bushels. Use projections unchanged were domestic crush at 1.655 billion bushels and exports at a record 1.59 billion bushels.

The USDA wheat and corn carryover projections were above trade expectations, which averaged near 810 million bushels for wheat and 666 million bushels for corn. The soybean projection was slightly below the average trade estimate of 142 million bushels.

“Projected exports are lowered 25 million bushels with increased world supplies of high quality wheat, particularly in Australia, and a slower-than-expected pace of U.S. shipments heading into the final quarter of the wheat marketing year,” the USDA said.

At 1.275 billion bushels, projected 2010-11 U.S. wheat exports were down 2% from 1.3 billion bushels projected in February but up 45% from 881 million bushels estimated in 2009-10.

U.S. 2010-11 all wheat numbers unchanged from February included beginning stocks at 976 million bushels, production at 2.208 billion bushels, imports at 110 million bushels and total supply at 3.294 billion bushels.

Also unchanged from last month were 2010-11 food use at 930 million bushels, seed use at 76 million bushels, feed and residual at 170 million bushels and total domestic use at 1,176 million bushels. Total use was reduced by 25 million bushels to 2.451 billion bushels due to the cut in exports. The average price was projected to range from $5.60@5.80 a bushel, unchanged from February and compared with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

There were several changes from February in the by-class breakdown. The USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 310 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from February and down 75 million bushels from a year ago. The March change was based on a 5 million bushels increase in exports, to 620 million bushels, and a 2 million bushel decrease in domestic use, to 474 million bushels.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 233 million bushels, up 22 million bushels from February and just 1 million bushels below 234 million bushels in 2010. Domestic use was projected at 271 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from February, and exports were projected at 335 million bushels, down 20 million bushels.

Soft red winter wheat carryover projected at 168 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from February based on a like increase in projected exports, to 100 million bushels, and down 31 from 242 million bushels in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bushels in 2011, up 10 million bushels from February and up 3 million bushels from 2010, based on a 10 million bushel decrease in 2010-11 exports, projected at 180 million bushels.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 49 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from February and up 14 million bushels from 35 million bushels in 2010 based on a 4 million bushels increase in domestic use at 93 million bushels more than offset by a 5 million bushels decrease in exports at 40 million bushels.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 181.9 million tonnes, up 4.13 million tonnes from February but down 15.42 million tonnes, or 8%, from 197.32 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 647.6 million tonnes, up 2.19 million tonnes from February but down 34.99 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.59 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 663.02 million tonnes, down 2.21 million tonnes from February but up 10.52 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.5 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 123.06 million tonnes, down 2.28 million tonnes from February and down 12.74 million tonnes, or 9%, from 135.8 million tonnes in the prior year.

U.S. corn supply projections were unchanged from February with 2010 corn production at 12,447 million bushels, 2010-11 imports at 20 million bushels, beginning stocks at 1.708 billion bushels and total U.S. supply at 14.175 billion bushels.

Food, seed and industrial use of corn was unchanged at 6.35 billion bushels, including projected 2010-11 use for ethanol at 4.95 billion bushels and food, seed and industrial use at 1.4 billion bushels. U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5.2 billion bushels, unchanged from February. Total domestic use was projected at 11.55 billion bushels, unchanged from February and up 471 million bushels, or 4%, from 11.079 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 37 million bushels, or 2%, from 1,987 million bushels in 2009-10. Total corn use in 2010-11 was unchanged at 13.5 billion bushels, up 434 million bushels, or 3%, from 13.066 billion bushels last year.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 52.8 million cwts, unchanged from February but up 16.1 million cwts, or 44%, from 36.7 million cwts in 2010. The average farm price was projected to range from $12.25@12.75 a cwt, up 10c from February but down from $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10 and $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 98.78 million tonnes, up 4.93 million tonnes, or 5%, from February and up 4.52 million tonnes, or 5%, from 94.26 million tonnes a year earlier. The increase was the result of a 13,000 tonne decrease in 2010-11 production, still a record high at 451.52 million tonnes, more than offset by a 5.28 million tonne decrease in consumption, also still record high at 447 million tonnes.
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