U.S. 2011 corn carryover reduced 9% from January

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for corn was reduced by 70 million bushels, or 9%, from January, but wheat and soybean projections were unchanged from last month in the Feb. 9 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 675 million bushels, down 70 million bushels, or 9%, from 745 million bushels projected in January, and down 1.033 billion bushels, or 60%, from 1.708 billion bushels in 2010. The reduction was based on projected increased domestic demand for corn in 2010-11, including a 50-million-bushel increase for ethanol, a 15-million-bushel increase for high-fructose corn syrup and a 5-million-bushel increase for starch.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011 was projected at 818 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 158 million bushels, or 16%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the USDA said.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 11 million bushels, or 7%, from 151 million bushels a year earlier.

The USDA corn carryover projection was below the average of pre-report trade estimates that was near 735 million bushels, but the wheat projection was slightly above the average estimate of 810 million bushels and the USDA soybean number was slightly above trade expectations that averaged near 135 million bushels.

Corn supply projections were unchanged from January with 2010 corn production at 12.447 billion bushels, 2010-11 imports at 20 million bushels, beginning stocks at 1.708 billion bushels and total U.S. supply at 14.175 billion bushels.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.35 billion bushels, up 70 million bushels, or 1%, from 6.280 billion bushels in January and up 411 million bushels, or 7%, from 5.939 billion bushels in 2009-10. Included was a 50-million-bushel increase in projected use of corn for ethanol, at 4.95 billion bushels, and a 20-million-bushel increase in food, seed and industrial use, at 1.4 billion bushels.

“Rising corn prices have reduced spot margins relative to variable costs to break-even levels in recent weeks, however, ethanol blender incentives remain in place and export demand prospects remain strong with sugar-based ethanol uncompetitive at current sugar prices,” the USDA said. U.S. ethanol production was above expectations in November and was expected to be record high in December and January, the agency said.

“Corn used to produce high-fructose corn syrup is projected 15 million bushels higher, reflecting strong shipments of the corn-based sweetener to Mexico,” the USDA said. “Demand for HFCS has grown in Mexico as sugar exports to the United States have increased. Corn used for starch is also raised 5 million bushels based on the improving outlook for industrial output in the United States.”

U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5.2 billion bushels, unchanged from January but up 60 million bushels, or 1%, from 5.14 billion bushels in 2009-10. Total domestic use was projected at 11.55 billion bushels, up 70 million bushels from January and up 471 million bushels, or 4%, from 11.079 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1.95 billion bushels, unchanged from January but down 37 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.987 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.05-5.75 a bushel in 2010-11, compared with $4.90-5.70 a bushel projected in January, $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 a bushel in 2008-09.

U.S. 2010-11 all wheat numbers were unchanged from January, except the average price, which was projected to range from $5.60-5.80 a bushel, compared with $5.50-5.80 in January, $4.97 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

Unchanged from January were beginning stocks at 976 million bushels, production at 2.208 billion bushels, imports at 110 million bushels and total supply at 3.294 billion bushels.

Also unchanged from last month were 2010-11 total use, projected at 2.476 billion bushels, including food use at 930 million bushels, seed use at 76 million bushels, feed and residual at 170 million bushels and exports at 1.3 billion bushels.

There were several changes from January in the by-class breakdown. The USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 313 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 72 million bushels, or 19%, from 385 million bushels in 2010. Domestic use of hard winter wheat in 2010-11 was projected at 476 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from January, and exports were projected at 615 million bushels, up 10 million bushels.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 211 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from January but down 23 million bushels from 234 million bushels in 2010. Domestic use was projected at 273 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from January, but exports were projected at 355 million bushels, down 20 million bushels.

White wheat carryover was projected at 73 million bushels in 2011, down 10 million bushels from January and down 7 million bushels from 2010, based on a 10-million-bushel increase in exports, projected at 190 million bushels in 2010-11.

Soft red winter wheat numbers were unchanged from January with carryover projected at 173 million bushels, down 69 million bushels, or 29%, from 242 million bushels in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 48 million bushels, also unchanged from January but up 13 million bushels from 35 million bushels in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.77 million tonnes, down 220,000 tonnes from January and down 19.83 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.6 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.41 million tonnes, down 410,000 tonnes from January and down 37.24 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.65 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.23 million tonnes, down 30,000 tonnes from January but up 12.97 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.26 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.34 million tonnes, down 300,000 tonnes from January and down 10.31 million tonnes, or 8%, from 135.65 million tonnes in the prior year.

All U.S. soybean projections were unchanged from January with total supply at 3.495 billion bushels, domestic crush at 1.655 billion bushels, seed use at 88 million bushels, residual at 22 million bushels and exports at a record 1.59 billion bushels. The projected average farm price of soybeans also was unchanged from January at $11.20-12.20 a bushel, and compared with $9.59 a bushel in 2009-10 and $9.97 a bushel in 2008-09.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 52.8 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from January and up 16.1 million cwts, or 44%, from 36.7 million cwts in 2010. The change was based on a reduction of 1 million cwts in 2010-11 rice exports, projected at 116 million cwts.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 93.95 million tonnes, down 520,000 tonnes from January and down 640,000 tonnes from a year earlier.
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