U.S. 2011 wheat, corn, soybean carryover down

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2011 carryover of wheat, corn and soybeans were reduced from December projections, while 2010 U.S. corn and soybean production were reduced from November estimates, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in reports on Jan. 12.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 818 million bushels, down 40 million bushels, or 5%, from 858 million bushels forecast in December and down 158 million bushels, or 16%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the USDA said in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 745 million bushels, down 87 million bushels, or 10%, from 832 million bushels in December, and down 963 million bushels, or 56%, from 1.708 billion bushels in 2010.

U.S. 2010 corn production was revised to 12.447 billion bushels, down 1% from 12.540 billion bushels forecast in November and down 5% from a record 13.092 billion bushels in 2009.

Average corn yield was estimated at 152.8 bushels an acre, down 1.5 bushels from November and down 11.9 bushels from a record 164.7 bushels in 2009. Harvested area was estimated at 81.4 million acres, up slightly from November and up 2% from 2009.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 15%, from 165 million bushels in December, and down 11 million bushels, or 7%, from 151 million bushels in 2010.

U.S. 2010 soybean production was estimated at 3.329 billion bushels, down 1% from 3,375 million bushels forecast in November and also down 1% from a record 3.359 billion bushels last year, the USDA said. The average soybean yield was 43.5 bushels an acre, down 0.4 bushel from the November estimated and down 0.5 bushel from a record 44 bushels in 2009. Harvested area was a record 76.6 million acres, up slightly from 2009.

USDA projected 2010-11 carryover numbers for wheat, corn and soybeans and USDA revised 2010 production numbers for corn and soybeans all were below the average of pre-report trade expectations. Futures prices traded sharply higher for all three commodities following the reports.

“U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected 40 million bushels lower this month as a reduction in expected feed and residual use is more than offset by higher projected exports,” the USDA said.

Supply projections for 2010-11 were unchanged from December with beginning stocks at 976 million bushels, 2010 production at 2.208 billion bushels, imports at 110 million bushels and total supply at 3.294 billion bushels.

Total use was projected at 2.476 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from December and up 458 million bushels, or 23%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.3 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from December and up 419 million bushels, or 48%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

“Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and reduced competition with lower foreign supplies of milling quality wheat,” the USDA said.

Feed and residual use was projected at 170 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from December but up 20 million bushels, or 13%, from 150 million bushels in 2009-10. The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 930 million bushels, unchanged from December but up 13 million bushels from 917 million bushels in 2009-10. Seed use also was unchanged from December at 76 million bushels but was up 7 million bushels from 69 million bushels a year earlier.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.50 to $5.80 a bushel, compared with $5.30 to $5.70 projected in December and with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 313 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from December and down 72 million bushels, or 19%, from 385 million bushels in 2010.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 173 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from December and down 69 million bushels, or 29%, from 242 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 201 million bushels, unchanged from December but down 33 million bushels from 234 million bushels in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bushels in 2011, unchanged from December but up 3 million bushels from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 48 million bushels, also unchanged from December but up 13 million bushels from 35 million bushels in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.99 million tonnes, up 1.27 million tonnes from December but down 20.71 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.43 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.82 million tonnes, down 690,000 tonnes from December and down 36.78 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.6 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.26 million tonnes, down 1.21 million tonnes from December but up 13.5 million tonnes from 651.76 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.64 million tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes from December but down 10.11 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.75 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Australia production is lowered 0.5 million tonnes as heavy late-December rains and flooding further increased crop losses in Queensland,” the USDA said. “Australia exports are reduced 1.5 million tonnes as quality problems limit export opportunities.”

The USDA projected Australian 2010-11 wheat production at 25 million tonnes and exports at 13.5 million tonnes.

Estimated U.S. corn production in 2010 was reduced by 93 million bushels, to 12.447 billion bushels, 2010-11 imports were increased by 5 million bushels, to 20 million bushels, and beginning stocks were unchanged at 1.708 billion bushels, resulting in total U.S. supply for 2010-11 projected at 14.175 billion bushels, down 87 million bushels from December and down 599 million bushels, or 4%, from 14.774 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5.2 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels, or 2%, from 5.3 billion bushels in December but up 60 million bushels, or 1%, from 5.14 billion bushels in 2009-10. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.28 billion bushels (food and seed use unchanged from December at 1.38 billion bushels but use for ethanol up 100 million bushels at 4.9 billion bushels), up 100 million bushels, or 2%, 6.18 billion bushels in December and up 341 million bushels, or 6%, from 5.939 billion bushels in 2009-10. Total domestic use was projected at 11.48 billion bushels, unchanged from December but up 401 million bushels, or 4%, from 11.079 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1.95 billion bushels, unchanged from December but down 37 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.987 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.90 to $5.70 a bushel in 2010-11, up 10¢ from December and compared with $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

U.S. 2010 soybean production was reduced by 46 million bushels from December to 3.329 billion bushels, with beginning stocks unchanged at 151 million bushels and imports raised 10 million bushels, to 15 million bushels, resulting in total 2010-11 supply projected at 3.495 billion bushels, down 41 million bushels, or 1%, from December and down 17 million bushels from 3.512 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Projected use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3.355 billion bushels, down 16 million bushels from December and down 6 million bushels from 3.361 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Crushings were projected at 1.665 billion bushels, unchanged from December but down 87 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.752 billion bushels in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1.59 billion bushels, unchanged from December and up 89 million bushels, or 6%, from the previous record of 1.501 billion bushels in 2009-10. Residual was projected at 22 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from December but up 4 million bushels from 2009-10. Seed use was unchanged from December at 88 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from 2009-10.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.20 to $12.20 a bushel, compared with $10.70 to $12.20 in December, $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.
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