U.S. 2011 wheat, corn carryover up, soybeans down

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 858 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 848 million bushels forecast in November but down 118 million bushels, or 12%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 832 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from 827 million bushels in November, based on a like increase in imports, but down 876 million bushels, or 51%, from 1,708 million bushels in 2010.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 165 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 11%, from 185 million bushels in November, based on a like increase in exports, but up 14 million bushels, or 9%, from 151 million bushels in 2010.

USDA projected 2010-11 carryover numbers were above trade expectations of 849 million bushels for wheat and 803 million bushels for corn but slightly below estimates of 167 million bushels for soybeans.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.208 billion bushels in 2010, unchanged from the November forecast but down 10 million bushels from 2.218 billion bushels a year earlier. U.S. 2010-11 wheat imports were projected at 110 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 9 million bushels from last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.294 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 301 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.993 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.25 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 369 million bushels, or 42%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

“Total exports are unchanged,” the USDA said, “but small shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of hard red spring and white wheat and lower projected exports of hard red winter and durum.”

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 930 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from November but up 13 million bushels from 917 million bushels in 2009-10.

“Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels on the latest mill grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau which indicate flour extraction rates that are higher than the long-term average for the third straight year,” the USDA said. With historically high wheat prices, millers continue to get more flour out of each bushels of wheat.”

The USDA projected 2010-11 seed use at 76 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 7 million bushels from 69 million bushels last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bushels, unchanged from November and up 30 million bushels, or 20%, from 150 million bushels in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2.436 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from November but up 418 million bushels, or 21%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.30-$5.70 a bushels, compared with $5.25-$5.75 projected in November and with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from November, based on a 5-million-bushel decrease in domestic use and a 10-million-bu reduction in exports, but down 47 million bushels from 385 million bushels in 2010.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 188 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from November, based on a 5-million-bushel decrease in domestic use, but down 54 million bushels from 242 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 201 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from November, based on a 10-million-bushel increase in projected exports, and down 33 million bushels from 234 million bushels in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bushels in 2011, down 5 million bushels from November, based on a 5-million-bushel increase in exports, but up 3 million bushels from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 48 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from November, based on a 5-million-bushel reduction in exports, but up 13 million bushels from 35 million bushels in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 176.72 million tonnes, up 4.21 million tonnes, or 2%, from November but down 24.17 million tonnes, or 12%, from 196.68 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 646.51 million tonnes, up 3.62 million tonnes from November but down 35.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.11 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 666.47 million tonnes, up 680,000 tonnes from November and up 14.85 million tonnes from 651.62 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.58 million tonnes, down 1.65 million tonnes from November and down 10.02 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.6 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Production for Australia is raised 1.5 million tonnes as higher reported yields in eastern Australia continue to boost production prospects,” the USDA said. “Recent heavy rains in many of these same areas, however, have dampened production prospects and reduce wheat quality.”

The USDA projected Australian 2010-11 wheat production at 25.5 million tonnes, up 1.5 million from November, and exports at 15 million tonnes, down 1 million from last month. Increases in production also were forecast for Canada, Ukraine, Brazil and Pakistan.

U.S. corn production in 2010 was forecast at 12.540 billion bushels, unchanged from November and down 570 million bushels, or 4%, from a record 13.110 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14.262 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from November based on a 5-million-bushel increase in imports at 15 million bushels, but down 530 million bushels, or 4%, from 14.792 billion bushels in 2009-10.

All other 2010-11 and 2009-10 projections were unchanged from November with feed and residual use 5.3 billion bushels, up 141 million bushels, or 3%, from 5.159 billion bushels in 2009-10. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.180 billion bushels (food and seed use at 1,380 million bushels and use for ethanol at 4,800 million bushels), up 242 million bushels, or 4%, from 5.938 billion bushels in 2009-10. Total domestic use was projected at 11.480 billion bushels, up 382 million bushels, or 3%, from 11,098 million bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1.950 billion bushels, unchanged from November but down 37 million bushels, or 2%, from 1,987 million bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.80-$5.60 a bushel in 2010-11, unchanged from November and compared with $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production was forecast at a record 3.375 billion bushels in 2010, unchanged from November but up 16 million bushels from 3.359 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3.536 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 24 million bushels from 3.512 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3.371 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from November and up 10 million bushels from 3.361 billion bushels in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1.665 billion bushels, unchanged from November but down 87 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.752 billion bushels in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1.590 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from November and up 89 million bushels, or 6%, from the previous record of 1.501 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Residual was projected at 29 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 11 million bushels from 2009-10. Seed use was unchanged from November at 88 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from 2009-10.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10.70-$12.20 a bushel, unchanged from November and compared with $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.
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