U.S. 2011 wheat, corn, soybean carryover reduced

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 848 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from 853 million bushels forecast in October and down 128 million bushels, or 13%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 827 million bushels, down 75 million bushels, or 8%, from 902 million bushels in October and down 881 million bushels, or 52%, from 1.708 billion bushels in 2010.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 185 million bushels, down 80 million bushels, or 30%, from 265 million bushels in October but up 34 million bushels, or 23%, from 151 million bushels in 2010.

USDA projected 2010-11 carryover numbers were below trade expectations of 869 million bushels for wheat, 840 million bushels for corn and 240 million bushels for soybeans.

U.S. all-wheat production was estimated at 2.208 billion bushels in 2010, down 16 million bushels, or 1%, from October and down 10 million bushels from 2.218 billion bushels a year earlier. U.S. 2010-11 wheat imports were projected at 110 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from October but down 9 million bushels from last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.294 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from October but up 301 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.993 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.250 billion bushels, unchanged from October but up 369 million bushels, or 42%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from October but up 23 million bushels, or 3%, from 917 million bushels in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bushels, also unchanged from October but up 7 million bushels from 69 million bushels last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bushels, unchanged from October and up 30 million bushels, or 20%, from 150 million bushels in 2009-10.

Total use was projected at 2.446 billion bushels, unchanged from October but up 428 million bushels, or 21%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to range from $5.25-$5.75 a bushel, compared with $5.20-$5.80 projected in October and with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 323 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from October and down 62 million bushels from 385 million bushels in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 183 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from October but down 59 million bushels from 242 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 211 million bushels, down 21 million bushels from October and down 23 million bushels from 234 million bushels in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bushels in 2011, unchanged from October but up 8 million bushels from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 43 million bushels, up 6 million bushels from October and up 8 million bushels from 35 million bushels in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 172.51 million tonnes, down 2.51 million tonnes from October and down 22.89 million tonnes, or 12%, from 195.4 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 642.89 million tonnes, up 1.45 million tonnes from October but down 39.81 million tonnes, or 6%, from 682.7 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.79 million tonnes, up 2.48 million tonnes from October and up 13.16 million tonnes from 652.63 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 127.23 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from October but down 8.09 million tonnes, or 6%, from 135.32 million tonnes in the prior year.

“Global wheat supplies are projected slightly higher for 2010-11 as higher world production offsets lower carryin, mostly reflecting higher 2009-10 wheat feeding in China,” the USDA said.

U.S. corn production in 2010 was forecast at 12.54 billion bushels, down 1% from October and down 570 million bushels, or 4%, from a record 13.110 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14.257 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels, or 1%, from 14.382 billion bushels in October and down 535 million bushels, or 4%, from 14.792 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Feed and residual use in 2010-11 was projected at 5.3 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels, or 2%, from October but up 141 million bushels, or 3%, from a downwardly revised 5.159 billion bushels in the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.180 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 2%, from October (with food and seed use unchanged from October at 1.380 billion bushels but up 10 million bushels from last year) and up 242 million bushels, or 4%, from an upwardly revised 5.938 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Included in the above was projected corn use for ethanol in 2010-11 at 4.8 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 2%, from October and up 232 million bushels, or 5%, from 4.568 billion bushels last year. Total domestic use was projected at 11.480 billion bushels, unchanged from October but up 382 million bushels, or 3%, from 11.098 billion bushels in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1.950 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 2.5%, from October and down 37 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.987 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.80-$5.60 a bushels in 2010-11, up 20¢ from $4.60-$5.40 projected in October and compared with $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production was forecast at a record 3.375 billion bushels in 2010, down 33 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.408 billion bushels in October but up 16 million bushels from 3.359 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3.536 billion bushels, down 33 million bushels from 3.569 billion bushels in October but up 24 million bushels from 3.512 billion bushels in 2009-10.
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