U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 5% from September

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 853 million bushels, down 49 million bushels, or 5%, from 902 million bushels forecast in September and down 123 million bushels, or 13%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Oct. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. all-wheat production was projected at 2.224 billion bushels for 2010-11, down 41 million bushels, or 2%, from September but up 6 million bushels from 2.218 billion bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.299 billion bushels, down 39 million bushels, or 1%, from September but up 306 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.993 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.25 billion bushels, unchanged from September but up 369 million bushels, or 42%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from September but up 23 million bushels, or 3%, from 917 million bushels in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bushels, also unchanged from September but up 7 million bushels from 69 million bushels last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 6%, from September and up 30 million bushels, or 20%, from 150 million bushels in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2.446 billion bushels, up 10 million from September and up 428 million bushels, or 21%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $5.20-$5.80 a bushels, up from $4.95-$5.65 in September and compared with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011 carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bushels, down 11 million bushels from September and down 47 million bushels from 385 million bushels in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 158 million bushels, down 21 million bushels from September and down 84 million bushels, or 35%, from 242 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011 was projected at 232 million bushels, down 17 million bushels from September and down 2 million bushels from 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bushels in 2011, up 2 million bushels from September and up 8 million bushels from 80 million bushels in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011 was projected at 37 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from September but up 2 million bushels from 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 641.44 million tonnes, down 1.57 million tonnes from September and down 40.71 million tonnes, or 6%, from 682.15 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 663.31 million tonnes, up 2.12 million tonnes from September and up 12.35 million tonnes, or 2%, from 650.96 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 126.23 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from 126.03 million tonnes in September but down 9.09 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.32 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 174.66 million tonnes, down 3.13 million tonnes from September and down 21.87 million tonnes, or 11%, from 196.53 million tonnes in 2009-10.

"Global wheat supplies for 2010-11 are projected 1 million tonnes lower, mostly reflecting lower production in the United States," the USDA said.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 902 million bushels, down 214 million bushels, or 19%, from 1.116 billion bushels in September and down 806 million bushels, or 47%, from an upwardly revised 1.708 billion bushels in 2010.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at 12.664 billion bushels, down 4% from September and down 446 million bushels, or 3%, from 13.110 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14.382 billion bushels, down 174 million bushels, or 1%, from 14.556 billion bushels in September and down 409 million bushels, or 3%, from 14.791 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Projected feed and residual use in 2010-11 was projected at 5.4 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels, or 3%, from September and up 233 million bushels, or 5%, from a downwardly revised 5.167 billion bushels in the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.08 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from September (with corn use for ethanol unchanged at 4.7 billion bushels and food and seed use down 10 million bushels at 1.38 billion bushels), but up 150 million bushels, or 3%, from an upwardly revised 5.93 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels, or 5%, from September but up 13 million bushels from 1.987 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4.60-$5.40 a bushels in 2010-11, up 60¢ from $4-$4.80 projected in September and compared with $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 265 million bushels, down 85 million bushels, or 24%, from 350 million bushels in September but up 114 million bushels, or 75%, from 151 million bushels in 2009-10.

Soybean production was projected at a record 3.408 billion bushels, down 75 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.483 billion bushels in September but up 49 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.359 billion bushels in 2009.

Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3.569 billion bushels, down 74 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.643 billion bushels in September but up 57 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.512 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3.305 billion bushels, up 12 million bushels from September but down 56 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.361 billion bushels in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1.665 billion bushels, up 15 million bushels from September but down 87 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.752 billion bushels in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1.52 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels, or 2%, from September and up 22 million bushels from 1.498 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Residual was projected at 32 million bushels, down 38 million bushels from September, and seed use was unchanged from September at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $10-$11.50 a bushel, up 85¢ from $9.15-$10.65 projected in September and compared with $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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