AWB 2010-11 wheat pool forecasts rebounds

by World Grain Staff
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MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA — AWB has increased its forecast pool returns for the 2010-11 season wheat by A$5-$13 a tonne, following a rebound in world wheat markets, AWB announced on Oct. 11.

The higher rate applies for most grades in Western Australia, reflecting local demand and the deteriorating crop situation in that state.

AWB’s estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat in the Western Pool is now A$348 a tonne, up A$13, ANW1 noodle wheat is now A$378 a tonne, also up A$13, and APW wheat in the Eastern Pool is A$337 a tonne, up A$10 (FOB, excl GST).

AWB’s General Manager Commodities Mitch Morison said the catalyst for a stronger wheat market was a jump in U.S. corn prices, following the release of a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that forecast U.S. end-season corn stocks at their lowest levels in 15 years.

"We’d only said just last week that the wheat market would need fresh news of a supply concerns to hold prices up, and with the price interrelationship between wheat and corn, the corn issue was certainly it," Morison said. "The market reaction was swift, with wheat futures generally rising close to daily allowable limits.

"We have been very fortunate that this has come along at the same time as the Australian dollar keeps strengthening, otherwise our pool estimates may have gone the other way."

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