U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 5% from August

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 902 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 5%, from 952 million bushels forecast in August and down 71 million bushels, or 7%, from 973 million bushels in 2010, but still the second highest in more than a decade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Sept. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2.265 billion bushels for 2010-11, unchanged from August but 2% above 2.216 billion bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.338 billion bushels, unchanged from August but up 347 million bushels, or 12%, from 2.991 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.25 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 4%, from August and up 369 million bushels, or 42%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

"Strong early season sales and reduced supplies in EU-27, particularly of higher quality wheat, support an improved outlook for U.S. exports," the USDA said.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 23 million bushels, or 3%, from 917 million bushels in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bushels, also unchanged from August but up 6 million bushels from last year.

Feed and residual use was projected at 170 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 21 million bushels, or 15%, from 149 million bushels in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2.436 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 2%, from August and up 418 million bushels, or 21%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.95-$5.65 a bushels, up from $4.70-$5.50 in August and compared with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 349 million bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 8%, from 379 million bushels in August and down 36 million bushels, or 9%, from 385 million bushels in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 179 million bushels, unchanged from August but down 62 million bushels, or 26%, from 241 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 249 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 4%, from 259 million bushels in August but up 15 million bushels, or 6%, from 234 million bushels in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 86 million bushels in 2011, down 10 million bushels, or 10%, from 96 million bushels in August but up 7 million bushels, or 9%, 79 million bushels in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 39 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 4 million bushels, or 11%, from 35 million bushels in 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 643.01 million tonnes, down 2.72 million tonnes from August and down 37.42 million tonnes, or 5%, from 680.43 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 661.19 million tonnes, down 3.75 million tonnes from August but up 11.66 million tonnes, or 2%, from 649.53 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 126.03 million tonnes, up 1.36 million tonnes from 124.67 million tonnes in August but down 7.72 million tonnes, or 6%, from 133.75 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.79 million tonnes, up 3.03 million tonnes, or 2%, from August but down 18.18 million tonnes, or 9%, from 195.97 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Increased stocks and production in Canada partially offset lower production forecasts for Russia and E.U., the USDA said, while higher ending stocks for E.U., Canada and Australia more than offset reductions in Russia and Pakistan. Russian 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 42.5 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from August and down 19.2 million tonnes, or 31%, from 61.7 million tonnes in 2009-10 "based on the latest harvest results for the drought-affected central growing areas in the Volga and Urals Federal Districts," the USDA said.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1.116 billion bushels, down 196 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.312 billion bushels in August and down 270 million bushels, or 19%, from a downwardly revised 1.386 billion bushels in 2010.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at a record 13.160 billion bushels, down 2% from August but up 50 million bushels from 13.110 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14.556 billion bushels, down 246 million bushels, or 2%, from August and down 235 million bushels from 14.791 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Projected feed and residual use in 2010-11 was projected at 5.250 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels, or 2%, from August and down 275 million bushels, or 5%, from 5.525 billion bushels the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.090 billion bushels, unchanged from August (including corn for ethanol at 4.700 billion bushels and food and seed use at 1.390 billion bushels), but up 190 million bushels, or 3%, from an upwardly revised 5.900 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2.100 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 2%, from August and up 120 million bushels, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 1.980 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $4-$4.80 a bushels in 2010-11, up from $3.50-$4.10 projected in August and compared with $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 350 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 3%, from 360 million bushels in August but up 200 million bushels, or 133%, from a downwardly revised 150 million bushels in 2009-10.

Soybean production was projected at a record 3.483 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.433 billion bushels in August and up 124 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.359 billion bushels in 2009.

Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,643 million bushels, up 40 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.603 billion bushels in August and up 131 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.512 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3.293 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.243 billion bushels in August but down 70 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.363 billion bushels in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1.650 billion bushels, unchanged from August but down 100 million bushels, or 6%, from 1.750 billion bushels in 2009-10. Exports were projected at 1.485 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 3%, from August but down 10 million bushels from an upwardly revised record 1.495 billion bushels in 2009-10. Residual was unchanged from August at 70 million bushels, as was seed use at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $9.15-$10.65 a bushel, up from $8.50-$10 projected in August and compared with $9.60 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.

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