U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 13% from July

by World Grain Staff
Share This:

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 952 million bushels, down 141 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.093 billion bushels forecast in July and down 21 million bushels, or 2%, from 973 million bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected USDA carryover was below the average pre-report trade expectation of 982 million bushels.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2.265 billion bushels for 2010-11, up 49 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.216 billion bushels in July and a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.338 billion bushels for 2010-11, up 49 million bushels, or 1%, from July and up 347 million bushels, or 12%, from 2.991 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.2 billion bushels, up 200 million bushels, or 20%, from July and up 319 million bushels, or 36%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

"Exports are projected 200 million bushels higher with declines in foreign production, particularly in the F.S.U.-12, reducing global supplies and making U.S. wheat competitive in key Middle East and North Africa markets," the USDA said.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from July but up 23 million bushels, or 3%, from 917 million bushels in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bushels, also unchanged from July but up 6 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 170 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 6%, from 180 million bushels in July but up 21 million bushels, or 15%, from 149 million bushels in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2.386 billion bushels, up 190 million bushels, or 9%, from July and up 368 million bushels, or 18%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.70-$5.50 a bushels, compared up 50¢ from July and compared with $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 379 million bushels, down 97 million bushels, or 20%, from 476 million bushels in July and down 6 million bushels from 385 million bushels in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 179 million bushels, up 17 million bushels, or 10%, from 162 million bushels in July but down 62 million bushels, or 26%, from 241 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 259 million bushels, down 74 million bushels, or 22%, from 333 million bushels in July but up 25 million bushels, or 11%, from 234 million bushels in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 96 million bushels in 2011, up 8 million bushels, or 9%, from 88 million bushels in July and up 17 million bushels, or 22%, 79 million bushels in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 39 million bushels, up 5 million bushels, or 15% from 34 million bushels in July and up 4 million bushels, or 11%, from 35 million bushels in 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.73 million tonnes, down 15.34 million tonnes, or 2%, from July and down 34.57 million tonnes, or 5%, from 680.3 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 664.94 million tonnes, down 2.1 million tonnes from July but up 13.1 million tonnes, or 2%, from 651.84 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 124.67 million tonnes, down 6.61 million tonnes from 131.28 million tonnes in July and down 7.56 million tonnes, or 6%, from 132.23 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 174.76 million tonnes, down 12.29 million tonnes, or 7%, from July and down 19.21 million tonnes, or 10%, from 193.97 million tonnes in 2009-10.

"Production in Russia is lowered 8 million tonnes as continued extreme drought and record heat during July and early August have further reduced summer crop prospects," the USDA said. Russian wheat production was forecast at 45 million tonnes, down 15% from 53 million tonnes in July and down 27% from 61.7 million tonnes in 2009-10.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1.312 billion bushels, down 61 million bushels, or 4% from 1.373 billion bushels in July and down 114 million bushels, or 8%, from 1.426 billion bushels in 2010.

The USDA number was above the average of analysts’ expectations for 2011 but below for 2010.

Corn production in 2010 was projected at a record 13.365 billion bushels, up 120 million bushels, or 1%, from July and up 255 million bushels, or 2%, from 13.110 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply for 2010-11 was projected at 14.802 billion bushels, up 69 million bushels from July and up 11 million bushels from 14.791 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Projected feed and residual use in 2010-11 was unchanged from July at 5.350 billion bushels but down 175 million bushels, or 3%, from 5.525 billion bushels the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.090 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels from July (including corn for ethanol at 4.700 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.390 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels), and up 225 million bushels, or 4%, from 5.865 billion bushels in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 2.050 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.950 billion bushels in July and up 75 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.975 billion bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.50 to $4.10 a bushel, up 5¢ from July and compared with $3.50 to $3.60 in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

World corn ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 139.28 million tonnes, down 1.88 million tonnes, or 1%, from 141.08 million tonnes in July but up 170,000 tonnes from 139.03 million tonnes in 2009-10.

World corn production was projected at 831.59 million tonnes, down 790,000 tonnes from 832.38 million tonnes in July but up 23.14 million tonnes, or 3%, from 808.45 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 360 million bushels, unchanged from July but up 200 million bushels, or 125%, from 160 million bushels estimated for this year. The USDA carryover number was above the average pre-report trade estimate for 2011 but slightly below for 2010.

Soybean production was projected at a record 3.433 billion bushels, up 88 million bushels, or 3%, from 3.345 billion bushels in July and up 74 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.359 billion bushels in 2009. Total supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3.603 billion bushels, up 73 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.530 billion bushels, in July and up 91 million bushels, or 3%, from 3.512 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Total use of soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3.243 billion bushels, up 73 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.170 billion bushels in July but down 110 million bushels, or 3%, from 3.353 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Crushings were projected at 1.650 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from July but down 100 million bushels, or 6%, from 1.750 billion bushels in 2009-10. Exports were projected at 1.435 billion bushels, up 65 million bushels, or 5%, from July but down 35 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.470 billion bushels in 2009-10. Residual was raised 3 million bushels from July to 70 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged from July at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.50 to $10 a bushel, up 40¢ from July and compared with $9.60 this year and $9.97 in 2008-09.

Global 2010-11 soybean ending stocks were projected at 64.73 million tonnes, down 3.03 million tonnes, or 3%, from 67.76 million tonnes in July but up 1.21 million tonnes, or 2%, from 63.52 million tonnes this year. Global soybean production in 2010-11 was projected at 253.69 million tonnes, up 2.4 million tonnes from 251.29 million tonnes in July but down 6.21 million tonnes, or 2%, from 259.9 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. rice on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 56.8 million cwts, down 10.6 million cwts, or 16%, from 67.4 million cwts in July but up 22.9 million cwts, or 68%, from 33.9 million cwts in 2010.

Global rice ending stocks in 2010-11 were projected at 97.52 million tonnes, up 910,000 tonnes from 96.61 million tonnes in July and up 2.97 million tonnes, or 3%, from 94.97 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Partners